Conference on World Affairs

Overall Impression: Well, the first thing I learned at this panel is that moderator hatched panel ideas tend to be narrow in scope. If the moderator is an instructor, and has told his class to come see the panel, there is a good chance that the panel will not be able to really generate the usual amount of excitement. However the men on the panel are all brilliant and at least gave us some good perspective on the topic.

Paul Andres

Paul started us off with the concept of statistical risk versus perceived risk. Flying is statistically safer than driving and yet most of us perceive driving to be safer because we seem to have more personal control. I have in my notes that perceived risk can be a function of your belief system and sensation seeking behavior. Our beliefs help us decide what is risky to us. Investing money in the stock market may scare some people enough that they avoid it. Sensation seeking behavior on the other hand is a genetic factor and, because of the rollercoaster kicks we get, might cause us to perceive something as less risky than it is. This behavior may be genetic and is where we experience that rollercoaster kick, but without the perceived risk.

Paul the listed four reasons that we takes risks.

1. Thrill and Adventure. Some people like jumping out of airplanes.
2. Experience. Somethings you just want to try.
3. Disinhibition. When an external stimulus removes inhibitions. (I think this is like when you are drunk and foolish. Although peer pressure might count too.)
4. Boredom avoidance. (Sounds like boredom causing disinhibition.)

He noted that even after the various shuttle disasters astronauts did not drop out of the program. There is a knowledge difference about their field. They perceive risk, and its rewards, differently.

Philip Plait

Philip runs the www.badastronomy.com website. He joked that there was lots of risk for his job. (Seth chimed in that he "could get eaten by a bug-eyed monster.") Philip actually noted that he faces lawsuits everyday. Philip also noted that while me think something like astronomy is safe it can actually be quite risky. People have fallen off platforms on large telescopes, or been hit by falling or moving equipment. We may not perceive risks accurately.

Seth Shostak

Seth started out by noting that many people risking their lives did not know it and were not really, as perceived by them, risking their lives. Ben Franklin could not have know the risks of science. The Curies were not aware of the dangers of radiation. Other names mentioned were Jekyll and Hyde and William Jenner. In his job one of his his greatest risks is Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.

A better title might be risking someone else's life for science. He mentioned items like the Tuskegee Syphilis Study, genetic engineering of crops and such, and smallpox vaccines as situations where someone else is risking your life for science.

Jim Smith

Jim took an interesting approach, instead of sharing ideas he just told stories. He was a General in the Airforce and flew F-15s in four decades. I just sat back and enjoyed the stories. All I remember of one is that a fellow female passenger had to invent a way to relieve herself in the back of a fighter in flight. The same women later helped design the official system for when women are flying. This reiterated the idea that necessity is the mother of invention.

QUESTION PERIOD IDEAS

• What are the risks of going to Mars? The biggest risk is that it is expensive. The biggest benefit is in exploration. For example in the 1600s many ships left Europe and never came back, but we owe our country to that exploration.
• Risk involves trade offs. What is an acceptable level of risk?
• An interesting comparison was made that the number of casualties in the World Trade Center disaster was similar to the number of casualties during one month on the highways. (or something along those lines)
• "A ship in the harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for."
• How you die is important - to others.
• Woody Allen - "I don't mind dying, I just don't want to be there when it happens."
• "Aviation is not dangerous, but it is unforgiving of neglect and error."
• Risk averse or pain averse?
• Risk reduction is a good thing. Both aviation and race car driving have checklists to reduce the chance of error occurring or catching something that can go wrong. [Where else might we be able to use checklists to reduce risk?]